// KELLY CRITERION — OPTIMAL BET SIZING

Size the bet, not the hope.

Turn your win rate and payoff ratio into the fraction of the account Kelly says to risk — then dial it back to half or quarter Kelly for a smoother ride.

Inputs

Win Rate

Payoff Ratio

Average win ÷ average loss.Account Balance

Optional — sizes the suggested dollar bets.

Full Kelly

+25.00%of account

Edge +0.38R

Bet sizing

Kelly Fraction

25.00%

Half Kelly

12.50%

Lower variance

Quarter Kelly

6.25%

Conservative

Edge

+0.38R

Per bet, in R

Kelly fractions

Percent of account risked per bet25.00%